Axioma: How to prepare for a ‘no-hike’ scenario
Financial markets seem to consider a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike next month a foregone conclusion. Despite the fact that inflation for June came in lower than expected (2.4% compared with a consensus forecast of 2.6%), short-term interest futures still imply a probability of around 85% for a 0.25% base rate increase at the next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Aug. 2. While recent cross-asset class correlations clearly indicate that UK investors are concerned about political risk
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